{
  "generated_at": "2026-11-11T19:21:21+00:00",
  "series": {
    "electricity_access_national": [
      {
        "year": 2025,
        "value": 89.4,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S01",
        "page": "11",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Rural 76.7%; urban 100%"
      }
    ],
    "energy_transmitted": [
      {
        "year": 2013,
        "value": 12930,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S14",
        "page": "14",
        "confidence": "medium",
        "note": "2013 report states 12.93 TWh transmitted; no loss GWh available to cross-check"
      },
      {
        "year": 2014,
        "value": 13071.28,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S15",
        "page": "25",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2015,
        "value": 11690,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S16",
        "page": "15",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2016,
        "value": 13700,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S17",
        "page": "15",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2017,
        "value": 14310,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S18",
        "page": "14",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2018,
        "value": 15960,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S19",
        "page": "16",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2019,
        "value": 17887,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S20",
        "page": "18",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Loss GWh / loss % = 17,898 GWh, matches the 2019 report (17,887); the 2020-report comparator (17,034) does not fit"
      },
      {
        "year": 2020,
        "value": 19716.59,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S24",
        "page": "26",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Loss GWh / loss % = 19,711 GWh, matches the 2023-report series (19,716.59); the 2020 report headline (18,819) does not fit"
      },
      {
        "year": 2021,
        "value": 21466,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S22",
        "page": "19",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Loss GWh / 5.01% = 21,477 GWh, matches 21,466; \"2022\" comparator label in the source is a typo for 2021"
      },
      {
        "year": 2022,
        "value": 22478.46,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S23",
        "page": "24",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Loss GWh / loss % = 22,488 GWh, matches the 2022 report and the 2023 report p26 series; the 21,545 comparator does not fit"
      },
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "value": 23550.99,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S24",
        "page": "26",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2024,
        "value": 23692,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S25",
        "page": "25",
        "confidence": "low",
        "note": "Published headline, and the 2025 growth of 9.15% is computed from it. But the same report says \"over 24,600\" and loss GWh / 3.8% implies about 25,000. Unresolved"
      },
      {
        "year": 2025,
        "value": 25860,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S01",
        "page": "25",
        "confidence": "low",
        "note": "Published headline. Loss GWh (1,082) / 4.02% implies about 26,900, so the loss volume and the energy total may use different scopes. Unresolved"
      }
    ],
    "substations_or_BSPs": [
      {
        "year": 2019,
        "value": 63,
        "unit": "count",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S20",
        "page": "5",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2021,
        "value": 68,
        "unit": "count",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S22",
        "page": "5",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2022,
        "value": 69,
        "unit": "count",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S23",
        "page": "6",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "value": 66,
        "unit": "count",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S24",
        "page": "5",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2024,
        "value": 72,
        "unit": "count",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S25",
        "page": "9",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2025,
        "value": 72,
        "unit": "count",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S01",
        "page": "8",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      }
    ],
    "system_availability": [
      {
        "year": 2013,
        "value": 97.59,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S14",
        "page": "15",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2014,
        "value": 99.79,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S15",
        "page": "18",
        "confidence": "low",
        "note": "Same-year narrative used; the 2016 report restates 99.17. Definitions may differ between reports"
      },
      {
        "year": 2015,
        "value": 99.46,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S16",
        "page": "25",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2016,
        "value": 99.39,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S17",
        "page": "15",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2017,
        "value": 99.48,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S18",
        "page": "15",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2018,
        "value": 99.48,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S19",
        "page": "17",
        "confidence": "low",
        "note": "Same-year narrative used; the 2021 report restates 99.85. Definitions may differ"
      },
      {
        "year": 2019,
        "value": 99.43,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S20",
        "page": "20",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2020,
        "value": 99.15,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S21",
        "page": "17",
        "confidence": "low",
        "note": "Same-year narrative used; the 2021 and 2024 charts show 99.69. Definitions may differ"
      },
      {
        "year": 2021,
        "value": 99.22,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S22",
        "page": "19",
        "confidence": "low",
        "note": "Same-year narrative used; the chart on p20 of the same report shows 98.89"
      },
      {
        "year": 2022,
        "value": 99.26,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S23",
        "page": "25",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "value": 99.53,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S24",
        "page": "27",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2025,
        "value": 99.61,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S01",
        "page": "11",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      }
    ],
    "system_availability_excluding_J2K": [
      {
        "year": 2024,
        "value": 99.86,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S25",
        "page": "27",
        "confidence": "medium",
        "note": "Different scope: Explicitly excludes J2K; not interchangeable with overall system availability."
      }
    ],
    "system_peak_demand": [
      {
        "year": 2013,
        "value": 1942.9,
        "unit": "MW",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": "peak_coincident",
        "source_id": "S14",
        "page": "14",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2014,
        "value": 1970,
        "unit": "MW",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": "peak_coincident",
        "source_id": "S15",
        "page": "17",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2015,
        "value": 1933,
        "unit": "MW",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": "peak_coincident",
        "source_id": "S16",
        "page": "16",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2016,
        "value": 1997,
        "unit": "MW",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": "peak_coincident",
        "source_id": "S17",
        "page": "15",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2017,
        "value": 2192.15,
        "unit": "MW",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": "peak_coincident",
        "source_id": "S18",
        "page": "15",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2018,
        "value": 2525,
        "unit": "MW",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": "peak_coincident",
        "source_id": "S19",
        "page": "16",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2019,
        "value": 2804,
        "unit": "MW",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": "peak_coincident",
        "source_id": "S20",
        "page": "19",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2020,
        "value": 3090,
        "unit": "MW",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": "peak_coincident",
        "source_id": "S22",
        "page": "20",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Chart value read from the 2021 report p20 and the 2025 report p26 series; both agree"
      },
      {
        "year": 2021,
        "value": 3246,
        "unit": "MW",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": "peak_coincident",
        "source_id": "S22",
        "page": "20",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2022,
        "value": 3469,
        "unit": "MW",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": "peak_coincident",
        "source_id": "S23",
        "page": "26",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "value": 3618,
        "unit": "MW",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": "peak_coincident",
        "source_id": "S24",
        "page": "27",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2024,
        "value": 3952,
        "unit": "MW",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": "peak_coincident",
        "source_id": "S25",
        "page": "26",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2025,
        "value": 4283,
        "unit": "MW",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": "peak_coincident",
        "source_id": "S01",
        "page": "26",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      }
    ],
    "transformation_capacity": [
      {
        "year": 2019,
        "value": 8959.6,
        "unit": "MVA",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S20",
        "page": "5",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2021,
        "value": 9152.8,
        "unit": "MVA",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S22",
        "page": "5",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2022,
        "value": 9642,
        "unit": "MVA",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S23",
        "page": "6",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "value": 9784.8,
        "unit": "MVA",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S24",
        "page": "5",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2024,
        "value": 9799.8,
        "unit": "MVA",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S25",
        "page": "9",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2025,
        "value": 10493.8,
        "unit": "MVA",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S01",
        "page": "8",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      }
    ],
    "transmission_energy_losses": [
      {
        "year": 2015,
        "value": 440,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S16",
        "page": "15",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2016,
        "value": 610,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S17",
        "page": "15",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2017,
        "value": 590,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S18",
        "page": "14",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2018,
        "value": 707,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S19",
        "page": "55",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2019,
        "value": 843,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S20",
        "page": "59",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2020,
        "value": 887,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S21",
        "page": "65",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2021,
        "value": 1076,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S22",
        "page": "62",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2022,
        "value": 922,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S23",
        "page": "75",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "value": 908,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S24",
        "page": "75",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2024,
        "value": 951,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S25",
        "page": "72",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2025,
        "value": 1082,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S01",
        "page": "84",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      }
    ],
    "transmission_line_length": [
      {
        "year": 2019,
        "value": 6229.6,
        "unit": "circuit_km",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S20",
        "page": "5",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2021,
        "value": 6472.2,
        "unit": "circuit_km",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S22",
        "page": "5",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2022,
        "value": 6472.2,
        "unit": "circuit_km",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S23",
        "page": "6",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "value": 6639.2,
        "unit": "circuit_km",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S24",
        "page": "5",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2024,
        "value": 6719.6,
        "unit": "circuit_km",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S25",
        "page": "9",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2025,
        "value": 6777.71,
        "unit": "circuit_km",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S01",
        "page": "8",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      }
    ],
    "transmission_losses": [
      {
        "year": 2013,
        "value": 4.49,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S14",
        "page": "14",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2014,
        "value": 4.32,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S15",
        "page": "17",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2015,
        "value": 3.79,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S16",
        "page": "15",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2016,
        "value": 4.43,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S17",
        "page": "15",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2017,
        "value": 4.1,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S18",
        "page": "14",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2018,
        "value": 4.43,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S19",
        "page": "16",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2019,
        "value": 4.71,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S20",
        "page": "19",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2020,
        "value": 4.5,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S21",
        "page": "19",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2021,
        "value": 5.01,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S23",
        "page": "25",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "5.01% x 21,466 GWh = 1,076 GWh, which equals the audited loss volume; 5.15% does not"
      },
      {
        "year": 2022,
        "value": 4.1,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S23",
        "page": "25",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "value": 3.86,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S24",
        "page": "27",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      },
      {
        "year": 2024,
        "value": 3.8,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S25",
        "page": "26",
        "confidence": "medium",
        "note": "Rounded chart label; do not infer more precision"
      },
      {
        "year": 2025,
        "value": 4.02,
        "unit": "percent",
        "value_type": "actual",
        "capacity_type": null,
        "source_id": "S01",
        "page": "26",
        "confidence": "high",
        "note": "Single reported value, no conflict"
      }
    ]
  },
  "derived": {
    "peak_latest": 4283,
    "peak_latest_year": 2025,
    "peak_yoy_pct": 8.375506072874494,
    "peak_since_year": 2019,
    "peak_growth_since_pct": 52.74607703281027,
    "peak_cagr_since_pct": 7.315308287599942,
    "peak_first_year": 2013,
    "peak_cagr_full_pct": 6.8090704633542165,
    "energy_latest": 25860,
    "energy_latest_confidence": "low",
    "energy_yoy_pct": 9.1507681917947,
    "energy_yoy_confidence": "low"
  },
  "forecast": {
    "model_version": "baseline-0.2",
    "run_at": "2026-11-11T19:20:17",
    "interval": "80% prediction interval",
    "model_key": "loglinear",
    "sensitivity_model": "loglinear_w7",
    "sensitivity": [
      {
        "year": 2026,
        "p50": 4524.6129395261805
      },
      {
        "year": 2027,
        "p50": 4837.356749531948
      },
      {
        "year": 2028,
        "p50": 5171.717588884576
      },
      {
        "year": 2029,
        "p50": 5529.189638900476
      },
      {
        "year": 2030,
        "p50": 5911.370359555717
      },
      {
        "year": 2031,
        "p50": 6319.967628164379
      },
      {
        "year": 2032,
        "p50": 6756.80737148886
      }
    ],
    "points": [
      {
        "year": 2026,
        "p10": 4203.392951119798,
        "p50": 4581.654474397834,
        "p90": 4993.95558941913
      },
      {
        "year": 2027,
        "p10": 4512.185161160174,
        "p50": 4931.031986067825,
        "p90": 5388.758568004355
      },
      {
        "year": 2028,
        "p10": 4842.415320652755,
        "p50": 5307.051542951572,
        "p90": 5816.270231804085
      },
      {
        "year": 2029,
        "p10": 5195.597152936296,
        "p50": 5711.7447542667915,
        "p90": 6279.168145177829
      },
      {
        "year": 2030,
        "p10": 5573.356650075561,
        "p50": 6147.298151121785,
        "p90": 6780.343863024265
      },
      {
        "year": 2031,
        "p10": 5977.438478402124,
        "p50": 6616.065000200848,
        "p90": 7322.922058510884
      },
      {
        "year": 2032,
        "p10": 6409.71305216495,
        "p50": 7120.578018311165,
        "p90": 7910.280991085989
      }
    ],
    "backtest": {
      "loglinear": {
        "n": 15,
        "mape": 0.029735115262175663,
        "mean_signed_error_pct": -0.02467037129211956
      },
      "loglinear_w7": {
        "n": 15,
        "mape": 0.06863623589174545,
        "mean_signed_error_pct": 0.029771196674933362
      },
      "loglinear_w5": {
        "n": 15,
        "mape": 0.06993761710499911,
        "mean_signed_error_pct": 0.05769030368435976
      },
      "linear_w7": {
        "n": 15,
        "mape": 0.03902611957558076,
        "mean_signed_error_pct": -0.02373427579168822
      },
      "cagr_endpoints_w7": {
        "n": 15,
        "mape": 0.03705951822904888,
        "mean_signed_error_pct": 0.023679238803507977
      },
      "last_yoy": {
        "n": 15,
        "mape": 0.04675581939192713,
        "mean_signed_error_pct": 0.018412970271954095
      }
    }
  },
  "conflicts": [
    {
      "metric": "energy_transmitted",
      "year": 2019,
      "status": "resolved",
      "note": "Loss GWh / loss % = 17,898 GWh, matches the 2019 report (17,887); the 2020-report comparator (17,034) does not fit",
      "values": [
        {
          "value": 17887,
          "unit": "GWh",
          "source_id": "S20",
          "page": "18",
          "chosen": true
        },
        {
          "value": 17034,
          "unit": "GWh",
          "source_id": "S21",
          "page": "16",
          "chosen": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "metric": "energy_transmitted",
      "year": 2020,
      "status": "resolved",
      "note": "Loss GWh / loss % = 19,711 GWh, matches the 2023-report series (19,716.59); the 2020 report headline (18,819) does not fit",
      "values": [
        {
          "value": 19716.59,
          "unit": "GWh",
          "source_id": "S24",
          "page": "26",
          "chosen": true
        },
        {
          "value": 18819,
          "unit": "GWh",
          "source_id": "S21",
          "page": "16",
          "chosen": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "metric": "energy_transmitted",
      "year": 2022,
      "status": "resolved",
      "note": "Loss GWh / loss % = 22,488 GWh, matches the 2022 report and the 2023 report p26 series; the 21,545 comparator does not fit",
      "values": [
        {
          "value": 22478.46,
          "unit": "GWh",
          "source_id": "S23",
          "page": "24",
          "chosen": true
        },
        {
          "value": 21545,
          "unit": "GWh",
          "source_id": "S24",
          "page": "25",
          "chosen": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "metric": "energy_transmitted",
      "year": 2024,
      "status": "open",
      "note": "Published headline, and the 2025 growth of 9.15% is computed from it. But the same report says \"over 24,600\" and loss GWh / 3.8% implies about 25,000. Unresolved",
      "values": [
        {
          "value": 23692,
          "unit": "GWh",
          "source_id": "S25",
          "page": "25",
          "chosen": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "metric": "energy_transmitted",
      "year": 2025,
      "status": "open",
      "note": "Published headline. Loss GWh (1,082) / 4.02% implies about 26,900, so the loss volume and the energy total may use different scopes. Unresolved",
      "values": [
        {
          "value": 25860,
          "unit": "GWh",
          "source_id": "S01",
          "page": "25",
          "chosen": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "metric": "system_availability",
      "year": 2014,
      "status": "resolved",
      "note": "Same-year narrative used; the 2016 report restates 99.17. Definitions may differ between reports",
      "values": [
        {
          "value": 99.79,
          "unit": "percent",
          "source_id": "S15",
          "page": "18",
          "chosen": true
        },
        {
          "value": 99.17,
          "unit": "percent",
          "source_id": "S17",
          "page": "15",
          "chosen": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "metric": "system_availability",
      "year": 2018,
      "status": "resolved",
      "note": "Same-year narrative used; the 2021 report restates 99.85. Definitions may differ",
      "values": [
        {
          "value": 99.48,
          "unit": "percent",
          "source_id": "S19",
          "page": "17",
          "chosen": true
        },
        {
          "value": 99.85,
          "unit": "percent",
          "source_id": "S22",
          "page": "20",
          "chosen": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "metric": "system_availability",
      "year": 2020,
      "status": "resolved",
      "note": "Same-year narrative used; the 2021 and 2024 charts show 99.69. Definitions may differ",
      "values": [
        {
          "value": 99.15,
          "unit": "percent",
          "source_id": "S21",
          "page": "17",
          "chosen": true
        },
        {
          "value": 99.69,
          "unit": "percent",
          "source_id": "S22",
          "page": "20",
          "chosen": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "metric": "system_availability",
      "year": 2021,
      "status": "resolved",
      "note": "Same-year narrative used; the chart on p20 of the same report shows 98.89",
      "values": [
        {
          "value": 99.22,
          "unit": "percent",
          "source_id": "S22",
          "page": "19",
          "chosen": true
        },
        {
          "value": 98.89,
          "unit": "percent",
          "source_id": "S22",
          "page": "20",
          "chosen": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "metric": "transmission_losses",
      "year": 2021,
      "status": "resolved",
      "note": "5.01% x 21,466 GWh = 1,076 GWh, which equals the audited loss volume; 5.15% does not",
      "values": [
        {
          "value": 5.01,
          "unit": "percent",
          "source_id": "S23",
          "page": "25",
          "chosen": true
        },
        {
          "value": 5.15,
          "unit": "percent",
          "source_id": "S22",
          "page": "20",
          "chosen": false
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "scenario": {
    "base_year": 2025,
    "base_peak": 4283,
    "end_year": 2040,
    "growth": {
      "low": 0.05408043452075573,
      "central": 0.07494746683659992,
      "high": 0.09622759195201636
    },
    "growth_basis": "the yearly growth that carries the 2025 peak to the low, central and high ends of the baseline projection for 2030",
    "assumptions": {
      "baseline_peak_growth_loglinear": {
        "value": 0.07625575294302611,
        "unit": "fraction/yr",
        "rationale": "Fitted log-linear growth of annual peak, 2013-2025; not a policy or planning assumption.",
        "source_id": null
      },
      "capacity_addition_delay": {
        "value": 2,
        "unit": "years",
        "rationale": "ILLUSTRATIVE. Years before the first new capacity arrives; projects slip.",
        "source_id": null
      },
      "ev_coincidence": {
        "value": 0.4,
        "unit": "fraction",
        "rationale": "ILLUSTRATIVE. Share of EVs charging at the moment of system peak. No Ghana charging-load data exists yet.",
        "source_id": null
      },
      "ev_fleet_base": {
        "value": 1200,
        "unit": "vehicles",
        "rationale": "Pure battery EVs registered by Oct 2025 per a DVLA figure quoted by UN Ghana (S09). Secondary source; definitions conflict with other counts (e.g. ~17,000 incl. 2/3-wheelers). Replace with DVLA primary data.",
        "source_id": "S09"
      },
      "ev_growth": {
        "value": 0.5,
        "unit": "fraction/yr",
        "rationale": "ILLUSTRATIVE. No source. A deliberately fast rate for a small fleet; a slider, not a forecast.",
        "source_id": null
      },
      "ev_kw_per_vehicle": {
        "value": 7,
        "unit": "kW",
        "rationale": "ILLUSTRATIVE. A typical single-phase AC home or workplace charger.",
        "source_id": null
      },
      "ev_managed_share": {
        "value": 0,
        "unit": "fraction",
        "rationale": "Share of charging moved away from the peak hours (a policy lever). Default none.",
        "source_id": null
      },
      "reserve_margin_target": {
        "value": 0.18,
        "unit": "fraction",
        "rationale": "Benchmark quoted in the project brief (CLAUDE.md). Source to be verified.",
        "source_id": null
      }
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "S01",
      "name": "2025 Annual Report",
      "publisher": "GRIDCo",
      "url": "(uploaded PDF: 2025_GRIDCo-_Annual_Report_.pdf)",
      "tier": "primary",
      "status": "have",
      "notes": "Transmission company report; has NO plant capacity, fuel mix, gas, hydro or load-shedding totals"
    },
    {
      "id": "S09",
      "name": "EV registrations statement (DVLA via UN Ghana)",
      "publisher": "UN Ghana",
      "url": "https://ghana.un.org/en/stories?page=5",
      "tier": "secondary",
      "status": "secondary",
      "notes": "Find the DVLA primary data; definitions conflict with other counts"
    },
    {
      "id": "S14",
      "name": "2013 Annual Report",
      "publisher": "GRIDCo",
      "url": "(user-held PDF; not in repo)",
      "tier": "primary",
      "status": "have (cleaned extract received)",
      "notes": "File: 2013-Annual-Report-Final.pdf. Values reach the project via data/gridco/gridco_clean_2013_2025.csv."
    },
    {
      "id": "S15",
      "name": "2014 Annual Report",
      "publisher": "GRIDCo",
      "url": "(user-held PDF; not in repo)",
      "tier": "primary",
      "status": "have (cleaned extract received)",
      "notes": "File: 2014-Annual-Report-Final.pdf. Values reach the project via data/gridco/gridco_clean_2013_2025.csv."
    },
    {
      "id": "S16",
      "name": "2015 Annual Report",
      "publisher": "GRIDCo",
      "url": "(user-held PDF; not in repo)",
      "tier": "primary",
      "status": "have (cleaned extract received)",
      "notes": "File: 2015-Annual-Report-RV.-1-Final-for-AGM.pdf. Values reach the project via data/gridco/gridco_clean_2013_2025.csv."
    },
    {
      "id": "S17",
      "name": "2016 Annual Report",
      "publisher": "GRIDCo",
      "url": "(user-held PDF; not in repo)",
      "tier": "primary",
      "status": "have (cleaned extract received)",
      "notes": "File: 2016-Annual-Report-Final-for-AGM.pdf. Values reach the project via data/gridco/gridco_clean_2013_2025.csv."
    },
    {
      "id": "S18",
      "name": "2017 Annual Report",
      "publisher": "GRIDCo",
      "url": "(user-held PDF; not in repo)",
      "tier": "primary",
      "status": "have (cleaned extract received)",
      "notes": "File: 2017_GRIDCo_Annual_Report.pdf. Values reach the project via data/gridco/gridco_clean_2013_2025.csv."
    },
    {
      "id": "S19",
      "name": "2018 Annual Report",
      "publisher": "GRIDCo",
      "url": "(user-held PDF; not in repo)",
      "tier": "primary",
      "status": "have (cleaned extract received)",
      "notes": "File: 2018_GRIDCo_Annual_Report.pdf. Values reach the project via data/gridco/gridco_clean_2013_2025.csv."
    },
    {
      "id": "S20",
      "name": "2019 Annual Report",
      "publisher": "GRIDCo",
      "url": "(user-held PDF; not in repo)",
      "tier": "primary",
      "status": "have (cleaned extract received)",
      "notes": "File: 2019_Annual-Report_Final_26-07-23.pdf. Values reach the project via data/gridco/gridco_clean_2013_2025.csv."
    },
    {
      "id": "S21",
      "name": "2020 Annual Report",
      "publisher": "GRIDCo",
      "url": "(user-held PDF; not in repo)",
      "tier": "primary",
      "status": "have (cleaned extract received)",
      "notes": "File: 2020-Annual-Report-02-09-2022.pdf. Values reach the project via data/gridco/gridco_clean_2013_2025.csv."
    },
    {
      "id": "S22",
      "name": "2021 Annual Report",
      "publisher": "GRIDCo",
      "url": "(user-held PDF; not in repo)",
      "tier": "primary",
      "status": "have (cleaned extract received)",
      "notes": "File: 2021-Annual-Report-Approved-for-printing-030723.pdf. Values reach the project via data/gridco/gridco_clean_2013_2025.csv."
    },
    {
      "id": "S23",
      "name": "2022 Annual Report",
      "publisher": "GRIDCo",
      "url": "(user-held PDF; not in repo)",
      "tier": "primary",
      "status": "have (cleaned extract received)",
      "notes": "File: GRIDCo_2022_Annual-Report_Final_5-12-24.pdf. Values reach the project via data/gridco/gridco_clean_2013_2025.csv."
    },
    {
      "id": "S24",
      "name": "2023 Annual Report",
      "publisher": "GRIDCo",
      "url": "(user-held PDF; not in repo)",
      "tier": "primary",
      "status": "have (cleaned extract received)",
      "notes": "File: GRIDCo_2023_Annual_Report_Final_5-12-24.pdf. Values reach the project via data/gridco/gridco_clean_2013_2025.csv."
    },
    {
      "id": "S25",
      "name": "2024 Annual Report",
      "publisher": "GRIDCo",
      "url": "(user-held PDF; not in repo)",
      "tier": "primary",
      "status": "have (cleaned extract received)",
      "notes": "File: FINAL-–-GRIDCo-AR-2024-FINAL-1.pdf. Values reach the project via data/gridco/gridco_clean_2013_2025.csv."
    }
  ],
  "capacity": null
}