Energy · ScenariosWhat-if tool, not a forecast

When could demand pass supply?

Change the settings and see how the year a shortfall opens moves. We have not yet verified how much capacity Ghana can reliably deliver, so you supply that number. Until it is checked against official documents, treat any answer as an experiment.

Settings

Demand growth a year Low, 5.4% Central, 7.5% High, 9.6%

From the data: the yearly growth that carries the 2025 peak to the low, central and high ends of the baseline projection for 2030.

Capacity you want to test (MW)

Not verified. Leave blank to see demand only. Use "dependable" capacity, not the rated total.

New capacity per year0 MW

Arrives after a delay of 2 years, because projects slip.

Capacity lost to gas, water or outages0%

Electric vehicle charging

EV fleet growth a year

Charging moved off the peak0%

Starting fleet: 1,200 pure EVs. Pure battery EVs registered by Oct 2025 per a DVLA figure quoted by UN Ghana (S09). Secondary source; definitions conflict with other counts (e.g. ~17,000 incl. 2/3-wheelers). Replace with DVLA primary data.
Charger: 7 kW. ILLUSTRATIVE. A typical single-phase AC home or workplace charger.
Charging at the peak moment: 40%. ILLUSTRATIVE. Share of EVs charging at the moment of system peak. No Ghana charging-load data exists yet.
Growth: ILLUSTRATIVE. No source. A deliberately fast rate for a small fleet; a slider, not a forecast.

Demand first exceeds supply in

…

Reserve margin falls below 18% in

…

Peak demand and supply under these settings

Starting point: 2025 peak of 4,283 MW (GRIDCo, actual). Everything after 2025 is a what-if. Demand includes EV charging.

Would electric vehicles matter?

Illustrative: the per-vehicle figures are assumptions, not measurements (see "Electric vehicle charging" above). Ghana has no public charging-load data yet.

Year-by-year numbers